Spare Tire Carrier Orientation

Hi - can someone with an OEM spare tire carrier please confirm how it mounts up to the outside of the RH rear corner?
I’m ready to drill holes for it in my new corner panel but it’s asymmetrical, my original corner had several sets of holes, and when I got my Jeep the carrier was mounted to the tailgate.

Does the baffle in the carrier point down and back like this:



Or up and back like this:


Note the body is upside down on my rotisserie - I’m referring to “up” as if the Jeep was right side up.

here’s a reference photo from my archives but I can’t tell from where these holes are which way it mounts:

 

I believe the correct orientation is like this:

 

Thank you! I see mine doesn’t have the hole in the center of the outside panel either, wonder if it’s aftermarket…

 

I’ve seen the side spare bracket mounted with the single stud both ways, facing up or down. I placed mine in the down position after seeing the majority of online pics having it this way.